The last time we checked in with Rep. Kenny Hulshof (R-MO), his candidacy for the University of Missouri presidency apparently hit a brick wall after another candidate was offered the gig, ending our brief dreams of an off-year special election here.
Hulshof’s district is not a typical Democratic target. Its PVI (R+6.5) and its 18-point margin for Bush in 2004, coupled with the incumbent’s uncontroversial tenure would have most analysts slotting this district in the “safe” column. But while the GOP can’t even recruit top challengers to defend GOP seats lately (see: NJ-03), Democrats are shooting for the fences, even in red districts like this one.
Earlier this fall, the DCCC put Hulshof on its SCHIP hit list, and targeted the incumbent with radio ads slamming him for his cold-shouldered vote against America’s poorest kids.
Now, it looks like Hulshof may finally get an opponent in state Rep. Judy Baker, who filed her papers to form an exploratory committee and begin raising money for a congressional campaign. A Baker candidacy would be a big step up for local Democrats, who haven’t fielded a candidate with elected experience against Hulshof since 2000.
For Baker, her gut is telling her that now is the time to run:
Baker said she’s done some “initial analysis” and says there is opportunity to run in the Ninth this year. She cited significant anxiety over the status quo in Washington and “a very strong swing toward doing something different.”
“I think I am able to fill that gap,” Baker said. “But it’s also for me – I feel like I can’t do anything else. I keep trying to say, ‘No, this is not the time, this is not the year, this is not the race.’ But it kind of grabs me and won’t let me go. Because I feel that the issues are so critical at such a critical juncture that I feel like the whole thing won’t even let me go.”
Hulshof’s vote against SCHIP would likely be a key campaign issue for Baker, should she make her bid official:
Most recently, she has been critical of Hulshof for voting against expansion and reauthorization of the State Children’s Health Insurance Program.
“That is going to be a huge issue for the next two decades,” Baker said. “We need someone who’ll stand up for people who need health care and not just say ‘we’re not going to supply it.’ … There are numerous other issues and it’s not just health care — economy, the war, health care – all of these add up to people wanting a new perspective and new set of eyes to look at our problems and move us forward.”
This would be a challenging district for any Democrat, especially against an incumbent. But any opportunity to make the GOP sweat should be seized upon. And you never know — perhaps Hulshof isn’t that thrilled with his job and might jump ship for another opportunity. We know that he’s been looking for an easy out already.
this is a traditionally Democratic district. Its most rural and socially Conservative, but these voters are swingable, unlike the voters in the fast growing St. Lewis suburbs(MO-02). The only thing I am worried about is Baker’s open House seat going Republican, unless she is term limited anyway.
This is a war of attrition. The Democrats can win simply by forcing the Republicans to defend more seats than they can afford to.
In addition, there’s always a hope for a Macaca moment this year, or at the very least building the grassroots for next time.
should help in the gubernatorial and the presidential race. Competitive candidates boost turnout in every corner of the state, even if the Presidential nominee and Nixon concentrate more on Dem strongholds.
Since 2000 was even and 2004 was 51/48, wouldn’t that mean an averaged 8% Republican advantage? So if Bush won by 18 in 2004, does that mean he lost in 2000 by 2%?
No one in the Party ever pays any attention to IL-19. John Shimkus lied about term limits, allowed Foley to get away with a crime, compared the Cards/Cubs rivalry to the Mideast war, and everyone allows him to get away with it. In the 12/02/2007 edition of the STL Post-Dispatch, he gloats about it. He feelssafe as he cuddles up to Roy Blunt, Tom DeLay’s protege’ .
Joe McMenamin is an excellent Dem candidate for IL-19. He deserves some attention in the national blogs and all the support possible from the DCCC. Instead he gets a big fat ZERO.
Shimkus is safe, and his constituents suffer for it.
Presidential vote totals in our handy chart here.
Bush won the district with 55% in 2000, and 59% in 2004. I’m not sure about the math, but Cook has this as R+6.5
This is her second term, after all.
http://www.house.mo.gov/bills0…
Hulshof is pretty popular in MO-09 despite being a Bush sycophant. Baker is the best candidate to step up to face Hulshof since he has been in office, but the districts 57-43 Republican tilt and Hulshof’s multiple term incumbency will make the challenge a big one. Baker, however, is enormously personable, and I think can exploit issues like health care and Iraq that will resonate with Democrats and Independents of all ideological stripes (besides neo-con). She is an excellent representative (she used to be my rep but I have moved to a bordering Distict which is currently under Republican tyraany) and a candidate worthy of financial support. If she has the $$$ she can make this race ugly for Hulshof and who knows perhaps even turn it into a 2008 upset. I want to get her on an Act Blue page soon, because there is nobody I would rather see in Congress (with apologies to Barbara Lee, my favorite incumbent congressperson).